Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Go Vote!

Campaigning for the 2008 presidential election is over: no more polls and no more pleas for money, and so the last thing you have to do is go and vote. I'll be voting this afternoon after leaving work early so I can get home and obsess about leaked exit polls that I know are misleading and meaningless. Fun! Most likely I will be doing a lot of posting tonight as polls close.

Only one change from my prediction from last Monday. I think that Obama is going to pull out Missouri too:

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

This is probably my most optimistic, yet fairly plausible view, of what will shake out this evening. Missouri and North Carolina are genuine tossups according to the latest polling, and could come down to only hundreds of votes, but I'm feeling that Obama's ground game and the cell phone voter problem will push him over the top.

Interestingly, I appear to have the same electoral vote projection as Professor Wang at Princeton Election Consortium... though I guess that's not so surprising since I used his site and its meta analysis to help come up with it!

Thus my verdict is a pretty crushing Obama victory, that sadly, his grandmother will not see. She passed away yesterday, and you can see Obama eulogize her here. A pretty big downer on what should be a very good night to be a Democrat with nice pickups on both the Senate and House sides.

Lastly, to avoid ending on a bitter sweet note, I highly recommend Nate Silver's Election Viewing Guide. It lets you know which key states close when and gives some insights into what to look for as you watch the coverage tonight.