Wednesday, October 29, 2008

About those polls inevitably tightening..

I don't think anybody meant that it would be polls of McCain's Red States that were tightening. Marc Ambinder:
In the battlegrounds, except for in McCain's internal polling, there has been NO appreciable tightening. None. Actually, that's wrong. There's been tightening in red states. Georgia. Montana. North Dakota. South Dakota. Arizona.

Yeah, you read that last one right. It appears that McCain's home state might be in play. Honestly, I can't imagine him losing there, but it's still sort of amusing to think he might have to run ads in Arizona... ludicrous, you say? Well, they're running ads in Montana and West Virginia. I assume they're not huge buys, but Ambinder says it's radio and TV, so who knows?

Anyway, if you're a typical nervous liberal, these are pretty clear signs you shouldn't be sweating an Obama victory too hard right now. Obviously, Obama's infomercial tonight could focus on his love of eating babies, but baring something like that, all signs point to: Yes we can!

Regardless, stop paying attention to the national trackers at this point. Random noise will just give you heartburn. All the information you need to gauge how the election is going to go is based on the state polls that are being released by the dozens daily. Use Pollster for their polling aggregates, and Princeton Election Consortium to keep an eye on how the overall probabilities are working out.