Monday, October 27, 2008

The 10/27 Prediction

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
This is the way I see the electoral votes shaking out at the moment. I'm pretty sure ~350 EV's would be the right total if the election was held today, but I'm not entirely sure which current "tossup" states break where. Basically I used Pollster's map and started from the assumption that any "leaner" states would stay in their respective camps (i.e. McCain won't flip Ohio) and moving the "tossup" states of North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada into Obama's column. Part of me is hoping this is how it shakes out since I'll be able to go to bed much earlier than if Missouri plays a key role. :)

I'll revisit this at the end of the week, since we'll be getting an avalanche of polls in the next few days which should clarify things a great deal.