Tuesday, June 3, 2008

What happens tonight?


If you are a sane and rational person, you probably haven't been paying too much attention to the Democratic primary lately since it's been effectively over for months now... but after tonight it will be even more over... because after tonight there aren't going to be any more primaries or caucuses or bizarre Texas hybrids. After South Dakota and Montana vote today (which Obama is both expected to win, though there are some caveats about South Dakota) Obama should be about 20-25 delegates short of the 2118 he needs to attach the words "presumptive nominee" to his name and will probably shortly(today?) get a flood of endorsements to push him over the top. With Florida and Michigan pretty decisively settled in Obama's favor, there just aren't any cogent arguments left for Hillary Clinton to make (No she didn't win the popular vote, thanks for playing).

So the big question is what will Hillary Clinton do tonight? Will she concede and endorse? Concede but not endorse? Vow to fight on to the convention? There has obviously been a fair amount of tea leaf reading of all the signs from the Clinton camp, but for every one that suggests a graceful exit there is another that suggests scorched earth.

I'm guessing she's going to concede and endorse this week, but unless Obama does actually manage to get together the Superdelegates to decisively declare victory as polls close, that it won't be tonight. Despite Ickes words this weekend, there is just no way she remains viable until August... she is going to be abandoned en masse by the non-crazy wing(yes, they exist) of her supporters once the last ballot is cast. The possibility of grievous damage to her reputation is just too great to rationalize staying in.

At least, that's my hope.

(image by flickr user radiospike photography used under a Creative Commons license)