Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania Primary Meaningless Prediction Post

I'm going to try to not pay too much attention to the coverage today and tonight, as this Primary thing has been going on too long and I think it is breaking my spirit.

Pollster's poll of polls, shows Obama behind 49.4% to 42.8% with a margin there of 6.6. I would certainly love to see Obama lose Penn by less than 7 points... but I find it terribly unlikely, as that would assume (beyond the polls being accurate - obviously dubious) is that the estimated 8% undecided break evenly for each candidate. From what I understand, the "undecideds" in Pennsylvania skew demographically towards Clinton, so I find it much more likely that they break overwhelmingly for her and push her margin into the 12 point range. Of course the Obama counter is whether all these New Democrats that registered last month break overwhelmingly for him and cut that margin back down below 10.

What will happen? I don't know, but I promised a prediction in the post title, so I'll say 10-13 point Clinton win. I'm just not feeling much good momentum for Obama, and it seems that this primary must go on forever to punish me.

So wish me luck on playing video games (maybe WoW with a buddy from High School) or working on my review of In Defense of Food for the ole' blog instead of watching talking heads online or hitting refresh every 30 seconds on TPM or whatever.