Wednesday, March 12, 2008

More on the Popular Vote...

So I've been a bit sick the last few days, but I still did pay attention to politics and all the craziness this weekend... even though all I got around to was posting music videos which is sort of lame and very lazy.

But anyway, with Obama's big wins in Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi on Tuesday he's pretty much erased all the gains Clinton made on March 5th (in fact CNN is reporting that he is projected to win the Texas caucus and will end up with more delegates from the State).

So what's up with the popular vote? Kos has done the most extensive arithmetic I've seen so far, and has Obama up by 833,000 which, as he says, should be insurmountable. The only problem? Many caucuses don't report direct votes and just report delegates... so he takes the overall turnout numbers and breaks them down proportionally.

Now we understand one of the reasons HRC's camp has been deriding caucuses as undemocratic... and of course that doesn't include Michigan and Florida, which have moved no closer to a re-vote.

So what we really need is for Obama to win Pennsylvania and make all the speculation moot, but it sure doesn't look like that's going to happen. Of course a lot can happen in 6 weeks or whatever it is, but he'd need a big momentum boost to win there and it's hard to see where that would come from. At the very least, hopefully he won't have any more staff resign.