Tuesday, March 4, 2008

March 4th Primaries

Well I was hoping for a knockout blow to be delivered by Obama tonight after a pretty good debate performance and so much momentum, but he's had an absolutely atrocious news cycle with NAFTA gate and HRC's "red phone ad". Obama's back on his heels at what would seem to be the worst possible time.

So based on Pollster.com's polls of polls, it would appear he is going to lose Ohio by 5 points, narrowly lose Texas, and probably lose Rhode Island but clean up in Vermont. So plugging in rough margins (55-45, 51-49, 55-45, and 40-60 respectively) for Clinton on Slate's delegate counter seems to indicate even such a bad outcome for Obama would leave him up by over 125 pledged delegates (leaving out the possibility that he pwns the caucus portion of the weird Texas two step thing). So that's semi-good news I suppose.

But here's hoping the polls dramatically underestimate Obama's support a la Wisconsin.