Tuesday, March 4, 2008

The Gore Scenario

Clive Crook lays out what I think is the most plausible path to the nomination for Hillary Clinton. As noted by myself and roughly 8 million other people with blogs: she has virtually no shot at catching Obama in pledged delegates no matter what happens tonight.

However, Clive notes what many others (including myself) have forgotten... she's actually not that far behind in the popular vote . 52-48 is what he claims, and though I'm not sure where that number comes from, it seems reasonable. So while she needs epic victories (60-40) across the board to close the delegate gap, she only needs 53% of the popular vote, which given solid five to ten point victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania and not getting blown out in Mississippi, Oregon , and the like seems entirely plausible to me (though I haven't even remotely looked at the math of it).

Now, if it comes down to the convention and Hillary Clinton clearly leads the popular vote (without counting Florida or Michigan) and she's down by less than (say) 100 pledged delegates, who do you think the Superdelegates break for? I'd guess it would be Hillary Clinton.

Just a little nightmare scenario to make me nervous while I wait for polls to close.